Championship · Matchweek 20
Derby County
DER
Bristol City
BRI
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Derby28%
Draw27%
Bristol City45%
Expected goals
1.19 – 1.55
Over 2.5
51%
Both to score
56%
Fair handicap
0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–112.0%
- 0–110.5%
- 1–29.2%
- 1–07.8%
- 0–07.4%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Bristol City get an unusual share of their chances from set plays.
58%Possession53%
51%Territory43%
24%From set plays50%
0.06Chance quality0.09
5.2%Directness4.4%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Derby, 3 for Bristol City. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 39 of 83 matches, not the full season.