Championship · Matchweek 20
Derby County
DER
Bristol City
BRI
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Derby29%
Draw27%
Bristol City44%
Expected goals
1.24 – 1.55
Over 2.5
52%
Both to score
57%
Fair handicap
0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–112.0%
- 0–110.0%
- 1–29.1%
- 1–07.8%
- 0–07.1%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
45%Possession42%
35%Territory33%
22%From set plays33%
0.09Chance quality0.14
7.4%Directness5.4%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Derby, 3 for Bristol City. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 33 of 156 matches, not the full season.