Championship · Matchweek 20
Swansea City
SWA
Bolton Wanderers
BOL
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Swansea60%
Draw23%
Bolton17%
Expected goals
1.88 – 0.91
Over 2.5
52%
Both to score
52%
Fair handicap
-1.00
Most likely scorelines
- 1–012.1%
- 2–010.7%
- 1–110.5%
- 2–19.9%
- 0–06.8%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
56%Possession51%
37%Territory35%
21%From set plays25%
0.15Chance quality0.09
4.3%Directness6.7%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Swansea, 3 for Bolton. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 39 of 83 matches, not the full season.