Championship · Matchweek 20
Birmingham City
BIR
Watford
WAT
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Birmingham49%
Draw27%
Watford24%
Expected goals
1.58 – 1.05
Over 2.5
48%
Both to score
53%
Fair handicap
-0.50
Most likely scorelines
- 1–112.0%
- 1–011.9%
- 2–19.5%
- 2–08.6%
- 0–08.2%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Watford get an unusual share of their chances from set plays.
49%Possession43%
34%Territory31%
5%From set plays31%
0.13Chance quality0.10
6.2%Directness5.8%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Birmingham, 3 for Watford. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Birmingham
No regular with a goal involvement yet.
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 33 of 156 matches, not the full season.