Championship · Matchweek 20
Birmingham City
BIR
Watford
WAT
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Birmingham54%
Draw25%
Watford21%
Expected goals
1.73 – 1.00
Over 2.5
51%
Both to score
53%
Fair handicap
-0.75
Most likely scorelines
- 1–011.8%
- 1–111.3%
- 2–19.8%
- 2–09.5%
- 0–07.4%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
45%Possession50%
40%Territory35%
29%From set plays35%
0.12Chance quality0.09
6.3%Directness4.5%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 4 for Birmingham, 3 for Watford. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 39 of 83 matches, not the full season.