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Championship · Matchweek 19

Stoke City

STK

Queens Park Rangers

QUE

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Stoke39%
Draw28%
QPR32%

Expected goals

1.37 – 1.22

Over 2.5

47%

Both to score

54%

Fair handicap

-0.25

Most likely scorelines

  • 1112.7%
  • 1010.6%
  • 019.3%
  • 008.7%
  • 218.5%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.

50%Possession49%
39%Territory42%
9%From set plays16%
0.10Chance quality0.11
5.8%Directness4.4%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Stoke, 4 for QPR. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 39 of 83 matches, not the full season.