Championship · Matchweek 19
Middlesbrough
MID
Derby County
DER
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Middlesbrough66%
Draw20%
Derby14%
Expected goals
2.19 – 0.93
Over 2.5
59%
Both to score
54%
Fair handicap
-1.25
Most likely scorelines
- 2–010.6%
- 1–010.3%
- 2–19.9%
- 1–19.0%
- 3–07.4%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
59%Possession58%
47%Territory51%
16%From set plays24%
0.12Chance quality0.06
4.1%Directness5.2%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 4 for Middlesbrough, 3 for Derby. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Middlesbrough
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 39 of 83 matches, not the full season.