Championship · Matchweek 19
Middlesbrough
MID
Derby County
DER
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Middlesbrough79%
Draw13%
Derby7%
Expected goals
2.79 – 0.80
Over 2.5
69%
Both to score
52%
Fair handicap
-2.00
Most likely scorelines
- 2–011.0%
- 3–09.9%
- 2–18.6%
- 1–08.2%
- 3–18.1%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Middlesbrough will have the ball; Derby will not mind.
59%Possession45%
42%Territory35%
15%From set plays22%
0.11Chance quality0.09
5.0%Directness7.4%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Middlesbrough, 3 for Derby. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Middlesbrough
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 33 of 156 matches, not the full season.