Championship · Matchweek 18
Wrexham
WRE
Portsmouth
POR
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Wrexham42%
Draw31%
Portsmouth27%
Expected goals
1.24 – 0.95
Over 2.5
37%
Both to score
45%
Fair handicap
-0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–014.1%
- 1–113.2%
- 0–012.6%
- 0–110.5%
- 2–18.3%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
53%Possession51%
36%Territory29%
37%From set plays52%
0.08Chance quality0.09
5.7%Directness6.5%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Wrexham, 5 for Portsmouth. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 33 of 156 matches, not the full season.