Championship · Matchweek 18
West Ham United
WHU
Stoke City
STK
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
West Ham55%
Draw23%
Stoke22%
Expected goals
1.96 – 1.21
Over 2.5
60%
Both to score
61%
Fair handicap
-0.75
Most likely scorelines
- 1–110.1%
- 2–19.8%
- 1–08.8%
- 2–08.0%
- 3–16.3%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
52%Possession50%
37%Territory39%
15%From set plays9%
0.18Chance quality0.10
4.9%Directness5.8%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for West Ham, 3 for Stoke. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 39 of 83 matches, not the full season.