Championship · Matchweek 18
Swansea City
SWA
Cardiff City
CAR
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Swansea51%
Draw26%
Cardiff23%
Expected goals
1.68 – 1.07
Over 2.5
51%
Both to score
54%
Fair handicap
-0.50
Most likely scorelines
- 1–111.6%
- 1–011.3%
- 2–19.7%
- 2–08.7%
- 0–07.3%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Cardiff will have the ball; Swansea will not mind.
56%Possession65%
37%Territory45%
21%From set plays15%
0.15Chance quality0.10
4.3%Directness6.1%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Swansea, 4 for Cardiff. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 39 of 83 matches, not the full season.