Championship · Matchweek 18
Swansea City
SWA
Cardiff City
CAR
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Swansea47%
Draw26%
Cardiff27%
Expected goals
1.62 – 1.19
Over 2.5
52%
Both to score
57%
Fair handicap
-0.50
Most likely scorelines
- 1–111.8%
- 1–010.3%
- 2–19.4%
- 2–07.6%
- 0–17.3%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Swansea will have the ball; Cardiff will not mind.
65%Possession52%
39%Territory37%
34%From set plays22%
0.10Chance quality0.13
4.5%Directness6.5%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Swansea, 3 for Cardiff. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Cardiff
No regular with a goal involvement yet.
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 33 of 156 matches, not the full season.