Championship · Matchweek 18
Southampton
SOU
Middlesbrough
MID
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Southampton31%
Draw25%
Middlesbrough44%
Expected goals
1.39 – 1.67
Over 2.5
58%
Both to score
62%
Fair handicap
0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–111.1%
- 1–29.0%
- 0–18.3%
- 2–17.3%
- 1–06.8%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
53%Possession59%
38%Territory42%
14%From set plays15%
0.12Chance quality0.11
3.7%Directness5.0%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 4 for Southampton, 3 for Middlesbrough. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 33 of 156 matches, not the full season.