Championship · Matchweek 18
Southampton
SOU
Middlesbrough
MID
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Southampton38%
Draw25%
Middlesbrough36%
Expected goals
1.59 – 1.55
Over 2.5
59%
Both to score
64%
Fair handicap
0.00
Most likely scorelines
- 1–111.0%
- 2–18.4%
- 1–28.1%
- 1–07.3%
- 0–17.1%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
57%Possession59%
34%Territory47%
30%From set plays16%
0.10Chance quality0.12
3.8%Directness4.1%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 4 for Southampton, 4 for Middlesbrough.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 39 of 83 matches, not the full season.