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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

Championship · Matchweek 18

Millwall

MIL

Burnley

BUR

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Millwall59%
Draw22%
Burnley19%

Expected goals

2.07 – 1.14

Over 2.5

61%

Both to score

60%

Fair handicap

-1.00

Most likely scorelines

  • 2–19.9%
  • 1–19.6%
  • 1–08.9%
  • 2–08.6%
  • 3–16.8%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Millwall will have the ball; Burnley will not mind.

59%Possession50%
41%Territory35%
29%From set plays47%
0.13Chance quality0.16
7.2%Directness4.3%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Millwall, 3 for Burnley. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 33 of 156 matches, not the full season.