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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

Championship · Matchweek 18

Millwall

MIL

Burnley

BUR

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Millwall61%
Draw22%
Burnley17%

Expected goals

1.99 – 1.00

Over 2.5

57%

Both to score

55%

Fair handicap

-1.00

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–010.6%
  • 1–110.0%
  • 2–110.0%
  • 2–09.9%
  • 3–16.6%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Burnley will have the ball; Millwall will not mind.

38%Possession47%
38%Territory36%
39%From set plays16%
0.13Chance quality0.07
9.5%Directness6.1%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 4 for Millwall, 4 for Burnley.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 39 of 83 matches, not the full season.