Championship · Matchweek 18
Derby County
DER
Watford
WAT
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Derby35%
Draw28%
Watford37%
Expected goals
1.31 – 1.34
Over 2.5
49%
Both to score
55%
Fair handicap
0.00
Most likely scorelines
- 1–112.6%
- 0–19.8%
- 1–09.5%
- 0–08.3%
- 1–28.2%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
45%Possession43%
35%Territory31%
22%From set plays31%
0.09Chance quality0.10
7.4%Directness5.8%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Derby, 3 for Watford. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 33 of 156 matches, not the full season.