Championship · Matchweek 18
Derby County
DER
Watford
WAT
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Derby36%
Draw28%
Watford35%
Expected goals
1.32 – 1.30
Over 2.5
48%
Both to score
54%
Fair handicap
0.00
Most likely scorelines
- 1–112.7%
- 1–09.9%
- 0–19.8%
- 0–08.5%
- 2–18.1%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
58%Possession50%
51%Territory35%
24%From set plays35%
0.06Chance quality0.09
5.2%Directness4.5%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Derby, 3 for Watford. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 39 of 83 matches, not the full season.