Championship · Matchweek 18
Birmingham City
BIR
Bolton Wanderers
BOL
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Birmingham65%
Draw20%
Bolton14%
Expected goals
2.14 – 0.94
Over 2.5
58%
Both to score
54%
Fair handicap
-1.00
Most likely scorelines
- 2–010.6%
- 1–010.5%
- 2–19.9%
- 1–19.2%
- 3–07.1%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
45%Possession51%
40%Territory35%
29%From set plays25%
0.12Chance quality0.09
6.3%Directness6.7%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 4 for Birmingham, 3 for Bolton. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 39 of 83 matches, not the full season.