Championship · Matchweek 17
Stoke City
STK
Millwall
MIL
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Stoke36%
Draw29%
Millwall35%
Expected goals
1.24 – 1.22
Over 2.5
44%
Both to score
51%
Fair handicap
0.00
Most likely scorelines
- 1–113.1%
- 1–010.8%
- 0–110.6%
- 0–09.9%
- 2–18.0%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Stoke get an unusual share of their chances from set plays.
57%Possession59%
37%Territory41%
49%From set plays29%
0.09Chance quality0.13
4.3%Directness7.2%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Stoke, 3 for Millwall. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 33 of 156 matches, not the full season.