Championship · Matchweek 17
Burnley
BUR
Birmingham City
BIR
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Burnley34%
Draw26%
Birmingham39%
Expected goals
1.41 – 1.52
Over 2.5
55%
Both to score
60%
Fair handicap
0.00
Most likely scorelines
- 1–111.7%
- 1–28.6%
- 0–18.5%
- 2–17.9%
- 1–07.8%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Burnley get an unusual share of their chances from set plays.
50%Possession49%
35%Territory34%
47%From set plays5%
0.16Chance quality0.13
4.3%Directness6.2%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Burnley, 3 for Birmingham. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Burnley
Birmingham
No regular with a goal involvement yet.
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 33 of 156 matches, not the full season.