Championship · Matchweek 17
Burnley
BUR
Birmingham City
BIR
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Burnley25%
Draw26%
Birmingham49%
Expected goals
1.15 – 1.67
Over 2.5
53%
Both to score
56%
Fair handicap
0.50
Most likely scorelines
- 1–111.6%
- 0–110.4%
- 1–29.6%
- 0–28.0%
- 1–06.9%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
47%Possession45%
36%Territory40%
16%From set plays29%
0.07Chance quality0.12
6.1%Directness6.3%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 4 for Burnley, 4 for Birmingham.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 39 of 83 matches, not the full season.