Championship · Matchweek 17
Wolverhampton Wanderers
WOL
Derby County
DER
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Wolves57%
Draw23%
Derby20%
Expected goals
1.97 – 1.14
Over 2.5
59%
Both to score
59%
Fair handicap
-0.75
Most likely scorelines
- 1–110.1%
- 2–19.9%
- 1–09.4%
- 2–08.6%
- 3–16.5%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Too early to characterise either side — these are the numbers so far, not a read on how they play.
55%Possession58%
30%Territory51%
21%From set plays24%
0.17Chance quality0.06
6.4%Directness5.2%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 2 for Wolves, 3 for Derby. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 39 of 83 matches, not the full season.