Championship · Matchweek 17
Middlesbrough
MID
Swansea City
SWA
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Middlesbrough51%
Draw26%
Swansea24%
Expected goals
1.65 – 1.08
Over 2.5
50%
Both to score
54%
Fair handicap
-0.50
Most likely scorelines
- 1–111.7%
- 1–011.3%
- 2–19.6%
- 2–08.6%
- 0–07.5%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
59%Possession56%
47%Territory37%
16%From set plays21%
0.12Chance quality0.15
4.1%Directness4.3%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 4 for Middlesbrough, 3 for Swansea. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Middlesbrough
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 39 of 83 matches, not the full season.