Championship · Matchweek 17
Bristol City
BRI
Wrexham
WRE
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Bristol City50%
Draw27%
Wrexham24%
Expected goals
1.58 – 1.04
Over 2.5
48%
Both to score
52%
Fair handicap
-0.50
Most likely scorelines
- 1–112.0%
- 1–012.0%
- 2–19.5%
- 2–08.7%
- 0–08.3%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
53%Possession50%
43%Territory33%
50%From set plays39%
0.09Chance quality0.08
4.4%Directness5.1%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Bristol City, 4 for Wrexham. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 39 of 83 matches, not the full season.