Championship · Matchweek 16
Stoke City
STK
Birmingham City
BIR
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Stoke41%
Draw30%
Birmingham29%
Expected goals
1.29 – 1.07
Over 2.5
41%
Both to score
49%
Fair handicap
-0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–113.1%
- 1–012.5%
- 0–010.8%
- 0–110.1%
- 2–18.4%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Stoke get an unusual share of their chances from set plays.
57%Possession49%
37%Territory34%
49%From set plays5%
0.09Chance quality0.13
4.3%Directness6.2%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Stoke, 3 for Birmingham. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Birmingham
No regular with a goal involvement yet.
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 33 of 156 matches, not the full season.