Championship · Matchweek 16
Stoke City
STK
Birmingham City
BIR
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Stoke35%
Draw27%
Birmingham38%
Expected goals
1.36 – 1.43
Over 2.5
52%
Both to score
58%
Fair handicap
0.00
Most likely scorelines
- 1–112.1%
- 0–19.2%
- 1–08.6%
- 1–28.5%
- 2–18.0%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Birmingham get an unusual share of their chances from set plays.
50%Possession45%
39%Territory40%
9%From set plays29%
0.10Chance quality0.12
5.8%Directness6.3%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Stoke, 4 for Birmingham. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 39 of 83 matches, not the full season.