Championship · Matchweek 16
Southampton
SOU
Derby County
DER
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Southampton68%
Draw19%
Derby13%
Expected goals
2.32 – 0.96
Over 2.5
63%
Both to score
56%
Fair handicap
-1.25
Most likely scorelines
- 2–010.3%
- 2–19.7%
- 1–09.3%
- 1–18.3%
- 3–17.6%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
53%Possession45%
38%Territory35%
14%From set plays22%
0.12Chance quality0.09
3.7%Directness7.4%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 4 for Southampton, 3 for Derby. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 33 of 156 matches, not the full season.