Championship · Matchweek 16
Southampton
SOU
Derby County
DER
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Southampton63%
Draw21%
Derby17%
Expected goals
2.18 – 1.07
Over 2.5
62%
Both to score
59%
Fair handicap
-1.00
Most likely scorelines
- 2–19.9%
- 2–09.2%
- 1–19.1%
- 1–09.0%
- 3–17.1%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
57%Possession58%
34%Territory51%
30%From set plays24%
0.10Chance quality0.06
3.8%Directness5.2%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 4 for Southampton, 3 for Derby. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 39 of 83 matches, not the full season.