Championship · Matchweek 16
Norwich City
NOR
Cardiff City
CAR
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Norwich47%
Draw26%
Cardiff27%
Expected goals
1.66 – 1.23
Over 2.5
54%
Both to score
58%
Fair handicap
-0.50
Most likely scorelines
- 1–111.5%
- 1–09.8%
- 2–19.4%
- 2–07.4%
- 0–17.0%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
55%Possession52%
39%Territory37%
15%From set plays22%
0.08Chance quality0.13
4.1%Directness6.5%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 4 for Norwich, 3 for Cardiff. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Cardiff
No regular with a goal involvement yet.
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 33 of 156 matches, not the full season.