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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

Championship · Matchweek 16

Middlesbrough

MID

Bristol City

BRI

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Middlesbrough51%
Draw25%
Bristol City24%

Expected goals

1.71 – 1.13

Over 2.5

53%

Both to score

56%

Fair handicap

-0.50

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–111.4%
  • 1–010.5%
  • 2–19.7%
  • 2–08.3%
  • 0–06.7%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Bristol City get an unusual share of their chances from set plays.

59%Possession53%
47%Territory43%
16%From set plays50%
0.12Chance quality0.09
4.1%Directness4.4%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 4 for Middlesbrough, 3 for Bristol City. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 39 of 83 matches, not the full season.