Championship · Matchweek 16
Bolton Wanderers
BOL
Portsmouth
POR
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Bolton26%
Draw26%
Portsmouth48%
Expected goals
1.17 – 1.63
Over 2.5
52%
Both to score
56%
Fair handicap
0.50
Most likely scorelines
- 1–111.7%
- 0–110.5%
- 1–29.5%
- 0–27.8%
- 1–07.2%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Portsmouth get an unusual share of their chances from set plays.
47%Possession51%
33%Territory29%
9%From set plays52%
0.09Chance quality0.09
6.4%Directness6.5%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Bolton, 5 for Portsmouth. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 33 of 156 matches, not the full season.