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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

Championship · Matchweek 15

Preston North End

PRE

Southampton

SOU

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Preston34%
Draw26%
Southampton40%

Expected goals

1.46 – 1.61

Over 2.5

58%

Both to score

62%

Fair handicap

0.25

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–111.2%
  • 1–28.7%
  • 0–17.9%
  • 2–17.8%
  • 1–07.1%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Southampton will have the ball; Preston will not mind.

41%Possession57%
38%Territory34%
45%From set plays30%
0.15Chance quality0.10
6.4%Directness3.8%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Preston, 4 for Southampton. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 39 of 83 matches, not the full season.