Championship · Matchweek 15
Portsmouth
POR
Stoke City
STK
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Portsmouth32%
Draw34%
Stoke34%
Expected goals
0.96 – 1.00
Over 2.5
32%
Both to score
41%
Fair handicap
0.00
Most likely scorelines
- 0–015.7%
- 0–114.0%
- 1–113.6%
- 1–013.3%
- 1–26.9%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
51%Possession57%
29%Territory37%
52%From set plays49%
0.09Chance quality0.09
6.5%Directness4.3%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 5 for Portsmouth, 3 for Stoke. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 33 of 156 matches, not the full season.