Championship · Matchweek 15
Portsmouth
POR
Stoke City
STK
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Portsmouth40%
Draw29%
Stoke31%
Expected goals
1.34 – 1.17
Over 2.5
45%
Both to score
52%
Fair handicap
-0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–112.9%
- 1–011.3%
- 0–19.6%
- 0–09.4%
- 2–18.5%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Too early to characterise either side — these are the numbers so far, not a read on how they play.
44%Possession50%
40%Territory39%
23%From set plays9%
0.09Chance quality0.10
8.4%Directness5.8%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 2 for Portsmouth, 3 for Stoke. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 39 of 83 matches, not the full season.