Championship · Matchweek 15
Derby County
DER
Bolton Wanderers
BOL
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Derby47%
Draw26%
Bolton27%
Expected goals
1.63 – 1.21
Over 2.5
53%
Both to score
57%
Fair handicap
-0.50
Most likely scorelines
- 1–111.7%
- 1–010.0%
- 2–19.4%
- 2–07.4%
- 0–17.2%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
58%Possession51%
51%Territory35%
24%From set plays25%
0.06Chance quality0.09
5.2%Directness6.7%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Derby, 3 for Bolton. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 39 of 83 matches, not the full season.