Championship · Matchweek 15
Derby County
DER
Bolton Wanderers
BOL
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Derby55%
Draw22%
Bolton23%
Expected goals
2.12 – 1.35
Over 2.5
66%
Both to score
66%
Fair handicap
-0.75
Most likely scorelines
- 2–19.5%
- 1–19.1%
- 1–07.2%
- 2–07.0%
- 3–16.6%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
45%Possession47%
35%Territory33%
22%From set plays9%
0.09Chance quality0.09
7.4%Directness6.4%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Derby, 3 for Bolton. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 33 of 156 matches, not the full season.