Championship · Matchweek 15
Cardiff City
CAR
Burnley
BUR
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Cardiff42%
Draw26%
Burnley33%
Expected goals
1.61 – 1.42
Over 2.5
57%
Both to score
62%
Fair handicap
-0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–111.3%
- 2–18.8%
- 1–08.2%
- 1–27.6%
- 0–17.1%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Burnley get an unusual share of their chances from set plays.
52%Possession50%
37%Territory35%
22%From set plays47%
0.13Chance quality0.16
6.5%Directness4.3%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Cardiff, 3 for Burnley. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Cardiff
No regular with a goal involvement yet.
Burnley
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 33 of 156 matches, not the full season.