Championship · Matchweek 15
Birmingham City
BIR
Swansea City
SWA
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Birmingham45%
Draw27%
Swansea28%
Expected goals
1.50 – 1.14
Over 2.5
48%
Both to score
54%
Fair handicap
-0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–112.3%
- 1–011.2%
- 2–19.2%
- 0–18.2%
- 0–08.2%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Swansea will have the ball; Birmingham will not mind.
45%Possession56%
40%Territory37%
29%From set plays21%
0.12Chance quality0.15
6.3%Directness4.3%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 4 for Birmingham, 3 for Swansea. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 39 of 83 matches, not the full season.