Club Football Intelligence

Championship · Matchweek 14

Tue, 3 Nov, 19:45 UTC

Watford

WAT

19:45 UTC

Lincoln City

LIN

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Watford55%

Draw24%

Lincoln21%

Expected goals

1.82 – 1.06

Over 2.5

54%

Both to score

55%

Fair handicap

-0.75

Most likely scorelines

1–110.9%
1–010.8%
2–19.9%
2–09.2%
0–06.4%

How they playPossession, press, how they create

Lincoln get an unusual share of their chances from set plays.

43%Possession38%

31%Territory28%

31%From set plays57%

0.10Chance quality0.11

5.8%Directness10.5%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Watford, 4 for Lincoln. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Watford

Myron BoaduFW2G 0A 0.85/90
Iker BravoFW0G 1A 0.34/90
Matthew PollockDF0G 1A 0.33/90

Lincoln

Andrei CoubișDF1G 1A 0.87/90
Dom JefferiesFW1G 0A 0.53/90
Sonny BradleyDF0G 1A 0.38/90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 33 of 156 matches, not the full season.