Championship · Matchweek 14
Portsmouth
POR
Swansea City
SWA
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Portsmouth35%
Draw30%
Swansea35%
Expected goals
1.18 – 1.16
Over 2.5
41%
Both to score
49%
Fair handicap
0.00
Most likely scorelines
- 1–113.3%
- 1–011.5%
- 0–111.4%
- 0–011.1%
- 2–17.7%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Too early to characterise either side — these are the numbers so far, not a read on how they play.
44%Possession56%
40%Territory37%
23%From set plays21%
0.09Chance quality0.15
8.4%Directness4.3%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 2 for Portsmouth, 3 for Swansea. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 39 of 83 matches, not the full season.