Championship · Matchweek 14
Derby County
DER
Norwich City
NOR
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Derby33%
Draw27%
Norwich40%
Expected goals
1.36 – 1.49
Over 2.5
53%
Both to score
59%
Fair handicap
0.00
Most likely scorelines
- 1–111.9%
- 0–19.1%
- 1–28.6%
- 1–08.2%
- 2–17.8%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Norwich will have the ball; Derby will not mind.
45%Possession55%
35%Territory39%
22%From set plays15%
0.09Chance quality0.08
7.4%Directness4.1%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Derby, 4 for Norwich. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 33 of 156 matches, not the full season.