Championship · Matchweek 14
Derby County
DER
Norwich City
NOR
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Derby29%
Draw25%
Norwich47%
Expected goals
1.36 – 1.76
Over 2.5
59%
Both to score
62%
Fair handicap
0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–110.8%
- 1–29.3%
- 0–18.3%
- 2–17.0%
- 0–26.6%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Derby get an unusual share of their chances from set plays.
58%Possession51%
51%Territory34%
24%From set plays4%
0.06Chance quality0.12
5.2%Directness6.5%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Derby, 3 for Norwich. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 39 of 83 matches, not the full season.