Championship · Matchweek 14
Birmingham City
BIR
Millwall
MIL
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Birmingham44%
Draw26%
Millwall30%
Expected goals
1.59 – 1.29
Over 2.5
54%
Both to score
59%
Fair handicap
-0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–111.7%
- 1–09.4%
- 2–19.1%
- 0–17.4%
- 1–27.2%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
45%Possession38%
40%Territory38%
29%From set plays39%
0.12Chance quality0.13
6.3%Directness9.5%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 4 for Birmingham, 4 for Millwall.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 39 of 83 matches, not the full season.