Championship · Matchweek 13
Swansea City
SWA
Blackburn Rovers
BLA
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Swansea46%
Draw28%
Blackburn26%
Expected goals
1.45 – 1.02
Over 2.5
44%
Both to score
50%
Fair handicap
-0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–012.7%
- 1–112.6%
- 0–09.6%
- 2–19.1%
- 0–18.6%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
56%Possession58%
37%Territory42%
21%From set plays11%
0.15Chance quality0.08
4.3%Directness4.6%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Swansea, 3 for Blackburn. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 39 of 83 matches, not the full season.