Championship · Matchweek 13
Millwall
MIL
Derby County
DER
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Millwall60%
Draw22%
Derby18%
Expected goals
1.99 – 1.02
Over 2.5
57%
Both to score
56%
Fair handicap
-1.00
Most likely scorelines
- 1–010.4%
- 1–110.0%
- 2–110.0%
- 2–09.7%
- 3–16.6%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Derby will have the ball; Millwall will not mind.
38%Possession58%
38%Territory51%
39%From set plays24%
0.13Chance quality0.06
9.5%Directness5.2%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 4 for Millwall, 3 for Derby. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 39 of 83 matches, not the full season.