Championship · Matchweek 13
Lincoln City
LIN
Birmingham City
BIR
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Lincoln29%
Draw29%
Birmingham42%
Expected goals
1.10 – 1.37
Over 2.5
44%
Both to score
51%
Fair handicap
0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–112.8%
- 0–111.9%
- 0–09.6%
- 1–09.3%
- 1–28.7%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
40%Possession45%
30%Territory40%
22%From set plays29%
0.08Chance quality0.12
7.5%Directness6.3%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Lincoln, 4 for Birmingham. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 39 of 83 matches, not the full season.