Championship · Matchweek 13
Burnley
BUR
Portsmouth
POR
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Burnley32%
Draw29%
Portsmouth39%
Expected goals
1.18 – 1.31
Over 2.5
45%
Both to score
52%
Fair handicap
0.00
Most likely scorelines
- 1–113.0%
- 0–111.2%
- 1–09.9%
- 0–09.6%
- 1–28.3%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Too early to characterise either side — these are the numbers so far, not a read on how they play.
47%Possession44%
36%Territory40%
16%From set plays23%
0.07Chance quality0.09
6.1%Directness8.4%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 4 for Burnley, 2 for Portsmouth. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 39 of 83 matches, not the full season.