Championship · Matchweek 12
Lincoln City
LIN
Burnley
BUR
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Lincoln46%
Draw28%
Burnley26%
Expected goals
1.43 – 1.03
Over 2.5
44%
Both to score
50%
Fair handicap
-0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–012.7%
- 1–112.7%
- 0–09.7%
- 2–19.0%
- 0–18.8%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
40%Possession47%
30%Territory36%
22%From set plays16%
0.08Chance quality0.07
7.5%Directness6.1%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Lincoln, 4 for Burnley. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 39 of 83 matches, not the full season.