Championship · Matchweek 12
Cardiff City
CAR
Birmingham City
BIR
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Cardiff30%
Draw26%
Birmingham44%
Expected goals
1.31 – 1.60
Over 2.5
55%
Both to score
59%
Fair handicap
0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–111.6%
- 0–19.2%
- 1–29.1%
- 1–07.4%
- 2–17.3%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Cardiff will have the ball; Birmingham will not mind.
65%Possession45%
45%Territory40%
15%From set plays29%
0.10Chance quality0.12
6.1%Directness6.3%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 4 for Cardiff, 4 for Birmingham.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 39 of 83 matches, not the full season.