Championship · Matchweek 11
Southampton
SOU
Bolton Wanderers
BOL
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Southampton67%
Draw19%
Bolton14%
Expected goals
2.33 – 1.02
Over 2.5
64%
Both to score
58%
Fair handicap
-1.25
Most likely scorelines
- 2–19.8%
- 2–09.7%
- 1–08.7%
- 1–18.3%
- 3–17.6%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
57%Possession51%
34%Territory35%
30%From set plays25%
0.10Chance quality0.09
3.8%Directness6.7%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 4 for Southampton, 3 for Bolton. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 39 of 83 matches, not the full season.