Championship · Matchweek 11
Millwall
MIL
Lincoln City
LIN
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Millwall53%
Draw26%
Lincoln21%
Expected goals
1.63 – 0.96
Over 2.5
47%
Both to score
50%
Fair handicap
-0.75
Most likely scorelines
- 1–012.8%
- 1–111.7%
- 2–09.7%
- 2–19.6%
- 0–08.4%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Millwall get an unusual share of their chances from set plays.
38%Possession40%
38%Territory30%
39%From set plays22%
0.13Chance quality0.08
9.5%Directness7.5%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 4 for Millwall, 3 for Lincoln. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 39 of 83 matches, not the full season.