Championship · Matchweek 11
Middlesbrough
MID
Cardiff City
CAR
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Middlesbrough62%
Draw21%
Cardiff17%
Expected goals
2.09 – 1.04
Over 2.5
60%
Both to score
57%
Fair handicap
-1.00
Most likely scorelines
- 2–110.0%
- 1–09.8%
- 2–09.6%
- 1–19.5%
- 3–16.9%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
59%Possession65%
47%Territory45%
16%From set plays15%
0.12Chance quality0.10
4.1%Directness6.1%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 4 for Middlesbrough, 4 for Cardiff.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Middlesbrough
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 39 of 83 matches, not the full season.