Championship · Matchweek 11
Derby County
DER
Stoke City
STK
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Derby32%
Draw27%
Stoke41%
Expected goals
1.31 – 1.48
Over 2.5
52%
Both to score
57%
Fair handicap
0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–112.1%
- 0–19.6%
- 1–28.8%
- 1–08.3%
- 2–17.6%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Derby get an unusual share of their chances from set plays.
58%Possession50%
51%Territory39%
24%From set plays9%
0.06Chance quality0.10
5.2%Directness5.8%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Derby, 3 for Stoke. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 39 of 83 matches, not the full season.