Championship · Matchweek 11
Burnley
BUR
Wolverhampton Wanderers
WOL
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Burnley30%
Draw26%
Wolves45%
Expected goals
1.33 – 1.65
Over 2.5
56%
Both to score
60%
Fair handicap
0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–111.3%
- 1–29.2%
- 0–18.9%
- 2–17.2%
- 1–07.0%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Too early to characterise either side — these are the numbers so far, not a read on how they play.
47%Possession55%
36%Territory30%
16%From set plays21%
0.07Chance quality0.17
6.1%Directness6.4%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 4 for Burnley, 2 for Wolves. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 39 of 83 matches, not the full season.