Championship · Matchweek 11
Birmingham City
BIR
Queens Park Rangers
QUE
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Birmingham47%
Draw27%
QPR26%
Expected goals
1.55 – 1.10
Over 2.5
49%
Both to score
54%
Fair handicap
-0.50
Most likely scorelines
- 1–112.1%
- 1–011.4%
- 2–19.3%
- 2–08.1%
- 0–08.0%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
45%Possession49%
40%Territory42%
29%From set plays16%
0.12Chance quality0.11
6.3%Directness4.4%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 4 for Birmingham, 4 for QPR.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 39 of 83 matches, not the full season.