Championship · Matchweek 10
Queens Park Rangers
QUE
Derby County
DER
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
QPR54%
Draw25%
Derby21%
Expected goals
1.70 – 0.99
Over 2.5
50%
Both to score
52%
Fair handicap
-0.75
Most likely scorelines
- 1–012.0%
- 1–111.4%
- 2–19.8%
- 2–09.5%
- 0–07.6%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Derby will have the ball; QPR will not mind.
49%Possession58%
42%Territory51%
16%From set plays24%
0.11Chance quality0.06
4.4%Directness5.2%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 4 for QPR, 3 for Derby. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 39 of 83 matches, not the full season.