Championship · Matchweek 10
Stoke City
STK
Middlesbrough
MID
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Stoke30%
Draw26%
Middlesbrough44%
Expected goals
1.29 – 1.58
Over 2.5
54%
Both to score
58%
Fair handicap
0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–111.8%
- 0–19.5%
- 1–29.1%
- 1–07.5%
- 2–17.2%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Middlesbrough will have the ball; Stoke will not mind.
50%Possession59%
39%Territory47%
9%From set plays16%
0.10Chance quality0.12
5.8%Directness4.1%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Stoke, 4 for Middlesbrough. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 39 of 83 matches, not the full season.