Championship · Matchweek 10
Birmingham City
BIR
Preston North End
PRE
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Birmingham52%
Draw25%
Preston23%
Expected goals
1.75 – 1.13
Over 2.5
54%
Both to score
57%
Fair handicap
-0.50
Most likely scorelines
- 1–111.2%
- 1–010.4%
- 2–19.8%
- 2–08.4%
- 0–06.4%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Preston get an unusual share of their chances from set plays.
45%Possession41%
40%Territory38%
29%From set plays45%
0.12Chance quality0.15
6.3%Directness6.4%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 4 for Birmingham, 3 for Preston. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 39 of 83 matches, not the full season.