Championship · Matchweek 9
Watford
WAT
Burnley
BUR
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Watford48%
Draw27%
Burnley25%
Expected goals
1.55 – 1.09
Over 2.5
48%
Both to score
53%
Fair handicap
-0.50
Most likely scorelines
- 1–112.2%
- 1–011.6%
- 2–19.4%
- 2–08.2%
- 0–08.2%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Watford get an unusual share of their chances from set plays.
50%Possession47%
35%Territory36%
35%From set plays16%
0.09Chance quality0.07
4.5%Directness6.1%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Watford, 4 for Burnley. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 39 of 83 matches, not the full season.