Championship · Matchweek 9
Southampton
SOU
Portsmouth
POR
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Southampton52%
Draw25%
Portsmouth23%
Expected goals
1.72 – 1.10
Over 2.5
53%
Both to score
56%
Fair handicap
-0.50
Most likely scorelines
- 1–111.3%
- 1–010.8%
- 2–19.7%
- 2–08.6%
- 0–06.8%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Too early to characterise either side — these are the numbers so far, not a read on how they play.
57%Possession44%
34%Territory40%
30%From set plays23%
0.10Chance quality0.09
3.8%Directness8.4%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 4 for Southampton, 2 for Portsmouth. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 39 of 83 matches, not the full season.