Championship · Matchweek 9
Derby County
DER
Wrexham
WRE
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Derby35%
Draw28%
Wrexham37%
Expected goals
1.30 – 1.33
Over 2.5
48%
Both to score
55%
Fair handicap
0.00
Most likely scorelines
- 1–112.6%
- 0–19.9%
- 1–09.6%
- 0–08.4%
- 1–28.2%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Derby will have the ball; Wrexham will not mind.
58%Possession50%
51%Territory33%
24%From set plays39%
0.06Chance quality0.08
5.2%Directness5.1%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Derby, 4 for Wrexham. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 39 of 83 matches, not the full season.