Championship · Matchweek 8
Wrexham
WRE
Southampton
SOU
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Wrexham32%
Draw26%
Southampton42%
Expected goals
1.34 – 1.56
Over 2.5
54%
Both to score
59%
Fair handicap
0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–111.7%
- 0–19.1%
- 1–28.9%
- 1–07.6%
- 2–17.5%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
50%Possession57%
33%Territory34%
39%From set plays30%
0.08Chance quality0.10
5.1%Directness3.8%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 4 for Wrexham, 4 for Southampton.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 39 of 83 matches, not the full season.